Lately I’ve been thinking about how LA has been bad with job creation, and I wonder if there’s a connection to housing. The above graph is from an UCLA Andersen Forecast that is a few years old. More recent data put LA in the middle of the pack, but still not great.
What’s worse is that it is particularly the middle-class jobs that have been hardest hit:
Employment loss in LA has been concentrated among middle-class jobs
In most cities, construction jobs are one of the biggest job categories and among the biggest drivers of fluctuations in total employment. Nationally, about 5% of all employment is in construction. And these jobs are well-paying, middle-class jobs, with average earnings nationally of almost $60,000/year. That got me to wondering: If coastal California cities have been refusing to build enough housing to meet demand for decades, then maybe there is a connection between our poor job performance and the lack of housing.
So I took estimates from the LAO report on housing and used data from BLS and the city to come up with a back-of-the envelope estimate of the cost to local employment of failing to construct enough residential construction to meet demand.
The Legislative Analyst’s Office report on housing says that there is an annual deficit in new home construction in LA County equal to 1.8 times the actual construction (meaning that new home construction should be nearly 3 times what it actually is:54,000 annually instead of 19,500 annually). Suppose that one-tenth of construction jobs are in residential construction. That would imply that about 0.5% of the LA workforce is in residential construction. That’s a very back-of-the-envelope estimate, but a reasonable one. If so, there is about 0.9% of the workforce (0.5% x 1.8) that is not employed because of the failure to build sufficient housing to meet normal demand. Put differently, if LA were constructing enough housing to meet demand, our unemployment rate would be 6.2% instead of its current 7.1%. That’s a pretty meaningful difference.
The National Association of Home Builders (admittedly not the most objective source) reports that building 100 units in a multi-family dwelling creates 161 jobs. Using the Legislative Analyst’s report on housing, there is an annual construction deficit of 34,500 units in LA. Assuming these are all multi-family units given that LA is mostly built-out already for single-family homes, and using the NAHB figures on employment per unit, that suggests there are 55,545 missing jobs in LA county because of the failure to build housing to meet demand. Given an estimated labor force in LA County of 5.044 million, that is 1.1% of employment, very similar to the other back-of-the-envelope analysis.
I haven’t seen this connection before between poor job creation and inadequate housing supply, but it’s an important one for public health, given the role of both housing and jobs for population health.
Rosalie Ray, Paul Ong, and Silvia Jimenez have shown that the costs of unaffordable housing–long a scourge for those with low incomes–have now become a genuine problem for the middle class as well. Let’s hope that a silver lining of so many people being affected will be that policy-makers will reduce the regulatory burden on new housing construction (hello, CEQA?), and stand up to Nimbys everywhere. (Yes, including in my own backyard).
Ellie Faustino, MA, is a writer and research associate at the Center for Health Advancement. Her work focuses on examining unnecessary spending and inefficiencies in the U.S. health system. Previously, she worked as managing editor for a digital publication, and was a contributing author and editorial/data coordinator for the fifth edition of the Tobacco Atlas, a triennial publication from the American Cancer Society that provides a comprehensive overview of current research on tobacco control. She completed her BA at the University of York, U.K., and MA at Georgia State University.
BRYNNE J. GOSCH
Brynne J. Gosch is an MPH student in the Health Policy and Management department at the UCLA Fielding School of Public Health. Her work for the Win-Win Project is centered on prevention and treatment strategies related to opioid use disorder, a topic she focused on as a health policy intern for the U.S. Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor and Pensions. Brynne holds a B.S. in public health from Brigham Young University.
KIMBERLY NARAIN
Kimberly Narain, MD, PhD, MPH, is an investigator in the Center for Health Advancement and an Assistant Professor-In-Residence in the David Geffen School of Medicine, Division of General Internal Medicine and Health Services Research. She is an internal medicine physician with expertise in health services research and policy analysis. Her research uses both quantitative and qualitative methods to explore person, delivery system and societal level drivers of health disparities among women, racial/ethnic minorities and individuals with low socioeconomic status. Prior to becoming faculty at UCLA Dr. Narain was an Advanced Health Services Research Fellow in the West Los Angeles VA Center for the Study of Healthcare Innovation, Implementation and Policy.
STEVE M. TEUTSCH
Steven M. Teutsch works on the Win-Win project. He is an independent consultant, Adjunct Professor at the Fielding School of Public Health, UCLA, and Senior Fellow, Schaeffer Center, University of Southern California. Until 2014 he was the Chief Science Officer, Los Angeles County Public Health where he continued his work on evidence-based public health and policy. He had been in Outcomes Research and Management program at Merck since October 1997 where he was responsible for scientific leadership in developing evidence-based clinical management programs, conducting outcomes research studies, and improving outcomes measurement to enhance quality of care. Prior to joining Merck he was Director of the Division of Prevention Research and Analytic Methods (DPRAM) at CDC where he was responsible for assessing the effectiveness, safety, and the cost-effectiveness of disease and injury prevention strategies. DPRAM developed comparable methodology for studies of the effectiveness and economic impact of prevention programs, provided training in these methods, developed CDC’s capacity for conducting necessary studies, and provided technical assistance for conducting economic and decision analysis. The Division also evaluated the impact of interventions in urban areas, developed the Guide to Community Preventive Services, and provided support for CDC’s analytic methods. He has served as a member of that Task Force and the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force, which develops the Guide to Clinical Preventive Services as well as on Americas Health Information Community Personalized Health Care Workgroup and the Evaluation of Genomic Applications in Prevention and Practice (EGAPP) Workgroup. He chaired the Secretary’s Advisory Committee on Genetics Health and Society, and has served on and has chaired IOM panels, Medicare’s Evidence Development and Coverage Advisory Committee, and on several subcommittees of the Secretary’s Advisory Committee on Healthy People 2020 and 2030. He received his undergraduate degree in biochemical sciences at Harvard University in 1970, an M.P.H. in epidemiology from the University of North Carolina School of Public Health in 1973, and his M.D. from Duke University School of Medicine in 1974.
COREY JACINTO
Mr. Jacinto is currently a PhD student in Health Policy and Management at UCLA. He earned a BA from Pomona College with a double major in economics and political science and a MPH with a concentration in health policy from Tulane University. Before matriculating at UCLA, Mr. Jacinto enjoyed his role as a program coordinator at the Center for Health Policy at the Indiana University Fairbanks School of Public Health. Some of his work included supporting the research efforts of the State Health Official Career Achievement and Sustainability Evaluation (SHO-CASE) study, Indiana’s State Epidemiological Outcomes Workgroup (SEOW), and an estimation of the medical cost burden attributable to childhood obesity in Indiana. Mr. Jacinto’s research interests include the economic evaluation of preventive interventions and care, value-based healthcare reform, leveraging economics to improve health outcomes, the social determinants of health, and the formulation and evaluation of policies intended to ameliorate health disparities that afflict racial/ethnic minorities and other historically marginalized and vulnerable populations and communities.
Katherine Chen
Katherine Chen, MD, is an internal medicine physician and a postdoctoral fellow in the National Clinician Scholars Program. Her research explores equity issues at the intersection of urban planning and population health. She uses quantitative methods to examine neighborhoods as physical and social environments that can drive or mitigate health disparities. Dr. Chen completed medical school, residency, and chief residency at UCLA and has remained a Bruin in her current pursuit of an M.S. in Health Policy & Management.
KARA E. MACLEOD
At the Center, Kara is working on the Health Impact Assessment of the California High Speed Rail. She is also a Postdoctoral Scholar at the University of Southern California where she is studying smart growth and social and physical environmental factors for obesity, mental health, and health care use funded by the National Cancer Institute. Previously, she was on the Center’s Health Forecasting project and she has been a researcher with UC Berkeley’s Safe Transportation Research and Education Center. Kara is interested in social context and the geography of community assets, and research which supports and prioritizes decisions to improve community health and health for vulnerable populations.
RICHARD J. JACKSON
Richard Joseph Jackson is a Professor at the Fielding School of Public Health at the University of California, Los Angeles. A pediatrician, he has served in many leadership positions with the California Health Department, including the highest as the State Health Officer. For nine years he was Director of the CDC’s National Center for Environmental Health and received the Presidential Distinguished Service award. In October, 2011 he was elected to the Institute of Medicine of the National Academy of Sciences. Jackson was instrumental in establishing the California Birth Defects Monitoring Program and in the creation of state and national laws to reduce risks from pesticides, especially to farm workers and to children. While at CDC he established major environmental public health programs and instituted the federal effort to “biomonitor” chemical levels in the US population. He has received its Hero Award from the Breast Cancer Fund, Lifetime Achievement Awards from the Public Health Law Association and the New Partners for Smart Growth, the John Heinz Award for national leadership in the Environment, and the Sedgwick Medal, the highest award of the American Public Health Association. In 2015 he received the Henry Hope Reed Award for his contributions to the field of Architecture. Dick Jackson lectures and speaks on many issues, particularly those related to built environment and health. He has co-authored the books: Urban Sprawl and Public Health, Making Healthy Places, and Designing Healthy Communities for which he hosted a four hour PBS series. He has served on many environmental and health boards, as well as the Board of Directors of the American Institute of Architects. He is an elected honorary member of the American Society of Landscape Architects as well as the American Institute of Architects. Richard Jackson is married to Joan Guilford Jackson; they have three grown children and two grandchildren.
RICHARD J. JACKSON
Richard Joseph Jackson is a Professor at the Fielding School of Public Health at the University of California, Los Angeles. A pediatrician, he has served in many leadership positions with the California Health Department, including the highest as the State Health Officer. For nine years he was Director of the CDC’s National Center for Environmental Health and received the Presidential Distinguished Service award. In October, 2011 he was elected to the Institute of Medicine of the National Academy of Sciences. Jackson was instrumental in establishing the California Birth Defects Monitoring Program and in the creation of state and national laws to reduce risks from pesticides, especially to farm workers and to children. While at CDC he established major environmental public health programs and instituted the federal effort to “biomonitor” chemical levels in the US population. He has received its Hero Award from the Breast Cancer Fund, Lifetime Achievement Awards from the Public Health Law Association and the New Partners for Smart Growth, the John Heinz Award for national leadership in the Environment, and the Sedgwick Medal, the highest award of the American Public Health Association. In 2015 he received the Henry Hope Reed Award for his contributions to the field of Architecture. Dick Jackson lectures and speaks on many issues, particularly those related to built environment and health. He has co-authored the books: Urban Sprawl and Public Health, Making Healthy Places, and Designing Healthy Communities for which he hosted a four hour PBS series. He has served on many environmental and health boards, as well as the Board of Directors of the American Institute of Architects. He is an elected honorary member of the American Society of Landscape Architects as well as the American Institute of Architects. Richard Jackson is married to Joan Guilford Jackson; they have three grown children and two grandchildren.
LANDON GIBSON
Landon Gibson is currently a PhD student in Health Policy and Management at UCLA, and has a BS in Biological Sciences from UC Irvine. He has worked on the Win-Win project since September 2016, providing support with research and data visualization. Previously he was a research assistant at the Public Policy Institute of California where he studied California’s senior population and allied health education in California’s Community Colleges.
BRIAN COLE
Brian Cole, Dr.P.H., is program manager and lead analyst for the Health Impact Assessment Group at the UCLA School of Public Health, conducting and providing technical assistance on HIAs on a wide range of public policies and projects, including Living Wage Ordinances, urban redevelopment, school programs and transportation projects. Overlapping this work in HIA, Dr. Cole is also engaged in research on the environmental determinants of physical activity in school, workplace and community settings. He teaches courses in school-based health education and community organization for public health promotion. He earned his Doctor of Public Health degree from the UCLA School of Public Health and Bachelor degrees in Environmental Science and Biology from Washington State University.
CHRISTINA BATTEATE
Christina’s immersion in creating sustainable urban environments spans the last decade and globe, including work on sustainable forms of housing, transportation and food systems in North and South America. A student of urban planning and practitioner of public health, Christina’s career functions at the intersection of two increasingly interdependent disciplines. She earned her Bachelor of Science in City and Regional Planning from California Polytechnic State University at San Luis Obispo and joint Masters degrees in Public Health and Latin American Studies from UCLA. She currently manages and contributes to a variety of projects addressing environmental health in the fields of transportation, open streets, agriculture and decision-making.
NATHANIEL ANDERSON
Nathaniel Anderson is currently a PhD student in Health Policy and Management at UCLA, and has a B.A. in mathematical economics from Pomona College. His research interests include social determinants of health and the intersection of the health and education systems. He has worked as a policy modeler for the Center for Health Advancement on the Win-Win Project since August 2015, extracting effect sizes from the literature and building the simulation model for various interventions. Previously he was a research associate for the Urban Institute’s Health Policy Center where he studied insurance coverage and access among non-elderly adults and children.
FREDERICK J. ZIMMERMAN, PHD
Fred Zimmerman, PhD, is Co-Director of the UCLA Center for Health Advancement and Professor of Health Policy and Management at the UCLA Fielding School of Public Health. Dr. Zimmerman is an economist with a background in institutional and behavioral economics. His research illuminates the intersection of institutional or behavioral economics and the social determinants of health, including extensive research on the effects of early media viewing on children’s health and development, critical theory of public health, and the political economy of health and social policy in Los Angeles County. Prior to joining the Fielding School faculty in 2008, Dr. Zimmerman was on the faculty in public health at the University of Washington, where he served as Co-Director of the Child Health Institute.
JONATHAN FIELDING, MD, MPH
Jonathan Fielding, MD, MPH, is the founding Co-Director of the UCLA Center for Health Advancement, Professor of Health Policy and Management at the UCLA Fielding School of Public Health, Professor of Pediatrics at the David Geffen School of Medicine, and an elected member of the National Academy of Sciences Institute of Medicine. Dr. Fielding also has served as Director of Public Health and Health Officer for Los Angeles County, where he was responsible for the full range of public health activities for over ten million county residents. He has received the Porter Prize, given for his national impact on improving the lives of Americans; the Milton and Ruth Roemer Prize, for achievements in local public health; and the Sedgwick Medal, for contributions to the field of public health.
